Wood Mackenzie: most power sought for US AI data centers won't get built

Only about 28% of the electricity capacity requested for US data centers is likely to get built, according to Wood Mackenzie projections reported August 12, 2026.

The energy research firm found that of 1,066 gigawatts of capacity sought for data-center projects nationwide, grid operators and utilities are likely to commit to roughly a quarter, dismissing the rest as ‘phantom’ or long-shot pitches unlikely to materialize.

The gap matters because power, not chips, is fast becoming the binding constraint on AI expansion. Developers routinely file overlapping requests across multiple utilities for the same project, inflating headline demand figures that grid planners and investors then struggle to read.

Wood Mackenzie frames grid transmission build-out as roughly five to 10 years behind data-center development timelines. That mismatch is pushing operators toward collocated generation — power built on-site — and flexible interconnection deals that carry technical, regulatory and economic hurdles the firm says the industry has not fully priced in.

The projection rests on a single firm’s modeling, and the underlying report was not published in full. The 28% figure is Wood Mackenzie’s estimate, not an industry consensus, and request-to-build conversion rates can shift as financing and permitting evolve.

If the estimate holds, much of the eye-popping power demand attached to the AI build-out is aspirational, a signal that headline gigawatt figures should be read as pitches, not commitments.